1053期 12月17日 :General Equilibrium Indirect Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement (with Adao and Esposito)(Costas Arkolakis,教授,耶鲁大学)

时间:2019-12-12

【主题】 General Equilibrium Indirect Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement (with Adao and Esposito)
【报告人】Costas Arkolakis(教授,耶鲁大学)
【时间】12月17日 星期二 14:00-15:30
【地点】 经济学院楼702室
【摘要】We analyze how international trade affects local labor markets in a multiple-sector economy with spatial links. We show that the partial equilibrium impact of trade shocks on regions takes the form of shift-share variables. In general equilibrium, regional shock exposure not only directly affects local outcomes, but also indirectly percolates to other regions. The sign and magnitude of these reduced-form indirect effects depend on observed data and assumptions about spatial links. Our theoretical characterization yields a methodology to efficiently estimate the direct and indirect effects of regional exposure to trade shocks, which can then be used to aggregate their impact in a modelconsistent way. We apply our methodology to study the impact of Chinese import competition on U.S. Commuting Zones. We find that indirect effects reinforce direct effects on both wages and employment. Typical literature calibrations of spatial links imply small direct effects and attenuating indirect effects that significantly weaken the model’s ability to fit employment and wage responses across regions.
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