1056期 12月24日 :Credit bubbles and firm dynamics(汤皓洲,经济学家,墨西哥银行)

时间:2019-12-18

【主题】 Credit bubbles and firm dynamics
【报告人】汤皓洲(经济学家,墨西哥银行)
【时间】12月24日(周二)14:00-15:30
【地点】 经济学院楼412室
【语言】英文
【摘要】I  develop a quantitative model with financial frictions, endogenous firm  entry and exit, and heterogeneous firms that have the possibility to  renew credit bubbles. Credit bubbles are the credits that are backed by  the expectation of future credits rather than future profits. Firms are  subject to idiosyncratic bubble crashes, which are linked to defaults. I  formalize an aggregate sentiment-underlied financial shock by  introducing a time-varying probability of idiosyncratic bubble crashes.  As the probability decreases, firms find it more likely to renew their  credit bubbles, and thereby less likely to default on debt and exit the  market. When calibrated to data, the model implies that bubbles boost  capital accumulation in new firms, but depress it in aged firms. The  model also produces a protracted increase in output and credit following  an expansionary sentiment shock. During the boom, the number of firms  increases, the allocative efficiency improves, whereas the average size  and productivity of firms decrease.
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