上海财经大学经济学院
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831期 11月16日 :Structural Change and Aggregate Employment Fluctuations in China(Wen Yao, Assistant Professor at Tsinghua University)

【主讲】Wen Yao (Assistant Professor at Tsinghua University)

【主题】Structural Change and Aggregate Employment Fluctuations in China

【时间】2017年11月16日 (周四) 15:30-17:00

【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼701室

【语言】英文

【摘要】One salient feature of business cycles in developed countries is that the fluctuations of aggregate employment and output are highly correlated. In China, however, the correlation of the cyclical components of aggregate employment and output is close to zero. Some take this as a sign that either the employment is poorly measured or there are unique institutional constraints in China that limit the employment variability. In this paper, we document two new stylized facts: (1) the business cycle properties of employment at sector level (agriculture and non-agriculture) in China are very similar to those in the US, and (2) the cyclical properties of labor reallocation between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in China and the US are also very similar. These facts suggest that difference in sector composition could be an important reason for the difference in aggregate employment fluctuations between the two economies. We then construct a two-sector growth model with productivity shocks and non-homothetic preferences and show that the model can simultaneously account for the secular trend in labor reallocation from agriculture and employment fluctuations at sector level and in the aggregate for both China and the US.

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